China’s exports slow in March as imports surge

April 14, 2026 / 2:45 PM

Sharjah24-AFP: China’s export growth slowed sharply in March after a strong start to the year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Exports rose 2.5% year-on-year, marking a clear deceleration from the double-digit gains seen in January and February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected export growth of around 8.6%, making the result weaker than forecast.

The slowdown follows China’s historic trade surplus of around 1.2 trillion US dollars last year. Early 2026 data had suggested continued strong momentum, with overseas shipments rising by more than 20% in the first two months of the year.

Exports to the United States fell sharply in March, down 26.5% year on year to 29.4 billion US dollars, according to customs figures. The decline was linked to higher tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump, which weighed on shipments to the American market.

Imports rise on higher energy costs

Imports rose sharply in March, up 27.8% year on year, beating Bloomberg's expectations of 14% growth. Analysts attributed the surge mainly to higher global energy prices, which pushed up the value of imported goods.

Global uncertainty and trade risks

Officials at the General Administration of Customs acknowledged growing uncertainty in the external environment. Deputy head Wang Jun said that international geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global industrial and supply chains in complex ways.

The war in the Middle East, involving the United States and Iran, has contributed to rising energy costs and broader instability in global trade.

Analysts point to weaker global demand

Analysts said growth in major export destinations had slowed broadly. He noted that uncertainty in the global economic outlook, driven by the Middle East conflict, has likely reduced demand for Chinese exports. Higher energy prices were a key driver of stronger import values, and this suggests China’s trade surplus may narrow over the course of the year.

Economic outlook ahead of key data release

China is set to release first-quarter GDP figures later this week. The government has set a growth target of 4.5% to 5% for the year, which is among the lowest in decades.

A survey of economists cited by AFP estimates first-quarter growth at around 4.8%, slightly higher than the previous quarter’s 4.5%. However, analysts continue to emphasise the need to shift towards stronger domestic consumption, as reliance on exports and infrastructure investment remains under pressure.

Ongoing weakness in the property sector, which has been a major drag on the economy, continues to weigh on consumer confidence and overall growth.