China's carbon emissions show signs of stabilising in 2025

February 12, 2026 / 9:59 AM

Chimneys spew emissions at a power station at the recently opened China (Shanghai) Pilot Free-Trade Zone in Shanghai

Sharjah24 - AFP: An international climate analysis indicates that China’s carbon dioxide emissions were either flat or slightly declining in 2025, marking a potential turning point — though experts caution that the improvement remains fragile and does not yet confirm a definitive peak.

China remains the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and has pledged to reach peak emissions by 2030, with some analysts previously suggesting that milestone could come earlier.

Broad sector declines support the trend

The assessment found that emissions decreased across most major sectors last year. Power generation emissions eased as rapid renewable energy expansion increasingly met rising electricity demand. Declines were also recorded in industry — particularly building materials due to slower construction activity — and in transport, supported by accelerating electric vehicle adoption.

Overall, carbon emissions are estimated to have edged down by about 0.3 percent in 2025. However, researchers note uncertainty in the data, especially around coal consumption figures, meaning the outcome is best described as “flat or falling” rather than definitively reduced.

First non-pandemic slowdown during demand growth

If confirmed, this would be the first time emissions have stabilised or fallen across a full calendar year while energy demand continued to grow. Previous drops were linked to pandemic lockdowns rather than structural energy changes.

The current stabilisation trend has continued since March 2024, largely driven by record renewable installations that are reducing pressure on fossil-fuel power generation.

Risks remain despite progress

Despite encouraging signals, analysts warn the progress could easily reverse. Emissions from the chemical industry rose sharply in 2025 and are expected to continue increasing. Although still smaller than other heavy sectors, its rapid growth rate gives it disproportionate impact.

Experts stress that total emissions have not yet fallen enough to guarantee a lasting downward path. Even a small rebound could push totals above previous peak levels and delay progress toward earlier-than-2030 peaking hopes.

Renewable’s expansion needs grid and storage support

China continues adding renewable capacity at record speed, but grid congestion has limited how much of that capacity converts into actual power generation. Grid reforms and expanded battery storage could significantly accelerate emissions reductions.

Coal remains the dominant power source, yet its share declined by nearly two percent last year despite rising electricity demand — another sign of gradual structural change, though not yet at the scale required for long-term carbon neutrality goals.