Global coal consumption to hit record high in 2025

The IEA noted that US consumption is expected to rise by eight per cent in 2025 — a sharp contrast to the average six-per-cent annual decline seen over the past 15 years — driven by higher natural gas prices and slower retirement of coal plants. President Donald Trump’s April directives to “turbocharge” coal mining and expand electricity generation to meet increasing AI-driven demand have further contributed to the rise.

Shifting trends in China and India

While China and India usually drive global coal demand, consumption in China plateaued, while it declined in India. A stronger-than-usual monsoon boosted hydropower output in India, cutting reliance on coal-fired electricity for only the third time in 50 years.

The IEA anticipates that coal use in China — the world’s largest consumer — will decline slightly over the next five years. In India, structural factors, such as increased renewables and enhanced hydropower capacity, are expected to limit demand despite rapid economic growth.

Competitive pressures reshape the global energy landscape

Despite the 2025 record, the IEA forecasts a 3% global decline in coal consumption by 2030. Accelerated deployment of renewable energy, steady expansion of nuclear power, and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply are expected to intensify competition with coal in global power markets.

IEA official Keisuke Sadamori highlighted the declining importance of coal in electricity generation: its share has fallen from 41 per cent in 2013 to an expected 34 per cent in 2025 — the lowest level since the agency began tracking data.